解放軍文職招聘考試Statistics-解放軍文職人員招聘-軍隊(duì)文職考試-紅師教育

發(fā)布時(shí)間：2017-12-20 21:59:36StatisticsThere were two widely divergent influences on the early development ofstatistical methods. Statistics had a mother who was dedicated to keepingorderly records of governmental units (state and statistics come from thesame Latin root status) and a gentlemanly gambling father who relied onmathematics to increase his skill at playing the odds in games of chance.The influence of the mother on the offspring, statistics, is representedby counting, measuring, describing, tabulating, ordering, and thetaking of censuses -- all of which led to modern descriptivestatistics. From the influence of the father came modern inferentialstatistics, which is based squarely on theories of probability.Descriptive statistics involves tabulating, depicting and describingcollections of data. These data may be quantitative such as measures ofheight, intelligence or grade level -- variables that are characterized byan underlying continuum -- or the data may represent qualitative variables,such as sex, college major or personality type. Large masses of data mustgenerally undergo a process of summarization or reduction before they arecomprehensible. Descriptive statistics is a tool for describing orsummarizing or reducing to comprehensible form the properties of anotherwise unwieldy mass of data.Inferential statistics is a formalized body of methods for solving anotherclass of problems that present great difficulties for the unaidedhuman mind. This general class of problems characteristicallyinvolve attempts to make predictions using a sample ofobservations. For example, a school superintendent wishes to determine theproportion of children in a large school system who come to school withoutbreakfast, have been vaccinated for flu, or whatever. Having a littleknowledge of statistics, the superintendent would know that it isunnecessary and inefficient to question each child: the proportion for theentire district could be estimated fairlyaccurately from a sample of as few as 100 children. Thus, the purpose ofinferential statistics is to predict or estimate characteristics of apopulation from a knowledge of the characteristics of only a sample of thepopulation.統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)統(tǒng)計(jì)方法的早期發(fā)展受到兩種截然不同的影響。 統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)有一個(gè) 母親 ，她致力于井井有條地記錄政府機(jī)構(gòu)的文件(國(guó)家和統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)這兩個(gè)詞源于同一個(gè)拉丁語(yǔ)詞根，status)，還有一個(gè)有紳士般的賭博 父親 ，他依靠數(shù)學(xué)來(lái)提高賭技，以便在幾率的游戲中取勝。 母親 對(duì)其子女統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的影響表現(xiàn)在計(jì)數(shù)、測(cè)量、描述、制表、歸類(lèi)和人口普查。 所有這些導(dǎo)致了 現(xiàn)代描述統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的誕生。由于 父親 的影響則產(chǎn)生了完全基于概率論原理的現(xiàn)代推理統(tǒng)計(jì) 學(xué)。 描述統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)涉及對(duì)所收集數(shù)據(jù)的制表、制圖和描述。 這些數(shù)據(jù)可以是數(shù)量性的數(shù)據(jù)，如高度、智商、或者是層級(jí)性的數(shù)據(jù)--具有連續(xù)性的變量--或數(shù)據(jù)也可以代表性質(zhì)變量，如 性別、大學(xué)專(zhuān)業(yè)或性格類(lèi)型等等。數(shù)量龐大的數(shù)據(jù)通常必須經(jīng)過(guò)概括或刪減的程序才能為 人所理解。 描述統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)就是這樣一個(gè)工具，它對(duì)極其龐雜的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行描述、概括或刪減，使其變成能為人理解的東西。 推理統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)是一套已定形了的方法體系，它解決的是光憑人 腦極難解決的另一類(lèi)問(wèn)題。這類(lèi)問(wèn)題的顯著特點(diǎn)是試圖通過(guò)取樣調(diào)查來(lái)作出預(yù)測(cè)。 例如， 有一位教育督察想知道在一個(gè)龐大的學(xué)校系統(tǒng)中，不吃早飯就上學(xué)的學(xué)生、已經(jīng)做過(guò)防感冒免疫的學(xué)生，或其它任何類(lèi)型的學(xué)生占多大比例。 若具備一些統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的知識(shí)，這位督察應(yīng) 明白，詢(xún)問(wèn)每個(gè)孩子是沒(méi)有必要而且沒(méi)有效率的，只要用 100個(gè)孩子為樣本，他就可以相當(dāng) 精確地得出這些孩子占整個(gè)學(xué)區(qū)的比例了。 因此，推理統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的目的就是通過(guò)了解一個(gè)群體中一些樣本的特性，從而對(duì)整個(gè)群體的特性進(jìn)行推測(cè)和估算。

解放軍文職招聘考試Forecasting of Statistics-解放軍文職人員招聘-軍隊(duì)文職考試-紅師教育

發(fā)布時(shí)間：2017-09-27 09:42:59worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests. Now it is the census taker that does the traveling in the fond hope that a highly mobile population will stay long enough to get a good sampling. Methods of gathering, recording, and evaluating information have presumably been improved a great deal. And where then it was the modest purpose of Rome to obtain a simple head count as an adequate basis for levying taxes, now batteries of complicated statistical series furnished by governmental agencies and private organizations are eagerly scanned and interpreted by sages and seers to get a clue to future events. The Bible does not tell us how the Roman census takers made out, and as regards our more immediate concern, the reliability of present day economic forecasting, there are considerable differences of opinion. They were aired at the celebration of the 125th anniversary of the American Statistical Association. There was the thought that business forecasting might well be on its way from an art to a science, and some speakers talked about newfangled computers and high-falutin mathematical system in terms of excitement and endearment which we, at least in our younger years when these things mattered, would have associated more readily with the description of a fair maiden. But others pointed to the deplorable record of highly esteemed forecasts and forecasters with a batting average below that of the Mets, and the President-elect of the Association cautioned that high powered statistical methods are usually in order where the facts are crude and inadequate, the exact contrary of what crude and inadequate statisticians assume. We left his birthday party somewhere between hope and despair and with the conviction, not really newly acquired, that proper statistical methods applied to ascertainable facts have their merits in economic forecasting as long as neither forecaster nor public is deluded into mistaking the delineation of probabilities and trends for a prediction of certainties of mathematical exactitude.1. Taxation in Roman days apparently was based on[A]. wealth. [B]. mobility. [C]. population. [D]. census takers.2. The American Statistical Association[A]. is converting statistical study from an art to a science.[B]. has an excellent record in business forecasting.[C]. is neither hopeful nor pessimistic.[D]. speaks with mathematical exactitude.3. The message the author wishes the reader to get is[A]. statisticians have not advanced since the days of the Roman.[B]. statistics is not as yet a science.[C]. statisticians love their machine.[D].computer is hopeful.4. The greatest story ever told referred to in the passage is the story of[A]. Christmas. [B]. The Mets.[C]. Moses. [D]. Roman Census Takers.Vocabulary1. census 人口調(diào)查2. decreed 分布法令3. influx 匯集，流入（人口或物）4. census taker 人口調(diào)查員5. in the intervening years 在這期間6. sampling 取樣（調(diào)查）7. presumable 可能的，可推測(cè)的8. batteries 一連串，一系列9. sage 圣人；聰明的（人 ）10. seer 先知11. newfangled 新型的（貶義）12. high-falutin 夸大的，夸張的13. deplorable 悲慘的，雜亂的14. batting average 平均成功率（原指擊球平均得分?jǐn)?shù)）15. ascertainable 可以確定的/確切的16. delineation 描述17. exactitude 精確難句譯注1. The hotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet an unexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests.[結(jié)構(gòu)簡(jiǎn)析] 復(fù)合句。And后為虛擬條件句。[參考譯文] 旅館業(yè)就憂(yōu)慮旅館建的太多，不愁人太多。但是如果他們不得不碰到意想不到大批旅客，沒(méi)有什么旅館會(huì)有一位經(jīng)理去安排疲憊不堪的客人的食宿。答案祥解1. C. 人口。答案在第六句， 那時(shí)羅馬計(jì)算人頭作為征稅的適當(dāng)基礎(chǔ)，目的很簡(jiǎn)單。A. 財(cái)富。 B. 流動(dòng)性。 C. 人口調(diào)查員。2. A. 正把統(tǒng)計(jì)研究從文科轉(zhuǎn)變成理科。這是從第六句開(kāi)始講的一種觀點(diǎn)。 現(xiàn)在，政府機(jī)構(gòu)和私人組織的一系列復(fù)雜的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，由智者和先知人物殷切地瀏覽和解釋以取得預(yù)先外未來(lái)事件的線索。圣經(jīng)并沒(méi)有告訴我們羅馬的人口調(diào)查員是怎么調(diào)查統(tǒng)計(jì)的。至于我們當(dāng)前更加關(guān)心的問(wèn)題：目前經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)的可靠性，意見(jiàn)分歧很大。美國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)協(xié)會(huì)125周年慶?；顒?dòng)上，人們?cè)诖笏列麚P(yáng)這些不同觀點(diǎn)。有一種說(shuō)法是經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)可能正從文科轉(zhuǎn)向科學(xué)（理科）發(fā)展。有些人興高采烈大談新型計(jì)算機(jī)和非常高級(jí)數(shù)學(xué)系統(tǒng)。 作者雖然沒(méi)有明說(shuō)，明眼人一看便知，藝術(shù)向科學(xué)轉(zhuǎn)變正是美國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)協(xié)會(huì)在把統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)從文科轉(zhuǎn)向理科。所以A. 對(duì)。B. 在商業(yè)預(yù)測(cè)方面具有杰出的記錄。不對(duì)。實(shí)際上 平均成功率還低于the MetsC. 既沒(méi)有希望也不樂(lè)觀。文內(nèi)沒(méi)有提及。只提作者他們半喜半憂(yōu)離開(kāi)協(xié)會(huì)。D. 以數(shù)學(xué)的精確性來(lái)說(shuō)話(huà)。見(jiàn)下道題解釋。協(xié)會(huì)部分人卻有此看法 數(shù)學(xué)精確性。A. 統(tǒng)計(jì)員從羅馬時(shí)代起就沒(méi)向前進(jìn)步過(guò)。 C. 統(tǒng)計(jì)員愛(ài)計(jì)算機(jī)。這兩項(xiàng)文內(nèi)沒(méi)有提到。 D. 計(jì)算機(jī)前程遠(yuǎn)大。文內(nèi)只講了有些人懷著興高采烈的心情大講新型計(jì)算機(jī)和非常高級(jí)數(shù)學(xué) 系統(tǒng) ，暗示了計(jì)算機(jī)大有希望。但不是所有人都這樣認(rèn)為的。最重要的計(jì)算機(jī)的應(yīng)用并不能改變這個(gè)事實(shí)：統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)不是立刻，而是文科。所以B. 對(duì)。4. A. 基督，圣誕節(jié)，指基督的誕生。圣經(jīng)中的一個(gè)故事。B. the Mets. 圣經(jīng)中率領(lǐng)希伯萊人出埃及的領(lǐng)袖，也作放債的猶太人講。 C. 摩西。 D. 羅馬人口調(diào)查員。